Choosing a number between $1$ and $100$, and randomly guessing it. What is the expected value of the number...
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I was watching Steve Balmer’s interview and he was talking about questions they’d ask from candidates. This is a question he gave, he says-
I choose a number between $1$ to $100$, the other person has to guess the number. If he gets it right the first time he gets $5$ bucks, if he misses the first time steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower( he does this every time you miss), if he gets it right the second time he gets $4$ bucks, third time $3$, fourth $2$ and so on and if he gets it right in the seventh guess the person has to give a buck to Steve and so on, the value goes decreasing. I am trying to calculate the expected value of this game, how can I solve this, I can’t seem to come up with a way.
P.S. I have edited the question with a slight variation, in the previous version steve doesn’t tell you anything after you have guessed the wrong number.
probability probability-distributions random-variables
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up vote
7
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I was watching Steve Balmer’s interview and he was talking about questions they’d ask from candidates. This is a question he gave, he says-
I choose a number between $1$ to $100$, the other person has to guess the number. If he gets it right the first time he gets $5$ bucks, if he misses the first time steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower( he does this every time you miss), if he gets it right the second time he gets $4$ bucks, third time $3$, fourth $2$ and so on and if he gets it right in the seventh guess the person has to give a buck to Steve and so on, the value goes decreasing. I am trying to calculate the expected value of this game, how can I solve this, I can’t seem to come up with a way.
P.S. I have edited the question with a slight variation, in the previous version steve doesn’t tell you anything after you have guessed the wrong number.
probability probability-distributions random-variables
Can you see why the probability you guess right during each time between $1$ and $100$ is the same?
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:51
6
Are you sure you haven't left something out, eg Steve has to tell you whether the number is larger or smaller than your guess? 2^6=64, 2^7=128, and I don't think it's a coincidence that after 7 guesses you pay out.
– Hong Ooi
Nov 30 at 20:50
@HongOoi is correct. Here's the actual interview (the problem statement starts at 00:35). Although this question has already been answered, so it's probably too late to edit it now.
– NotThatGuy
Nov 30 at 21:13
add a comment |
up vote
7
down vote
favorite
up vote
7
down vote
favorite
I was watching Steve Balmer’s interview and he was talking about questions they’d ask from candidates. This is a question he gave, he says-
I choose a number between $1$ to $100$, the other person has to guess the number. If he gets it right the first time he gets $5$ bucks, if he misses the first time steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower( he does this every time you miss), if he gets it right the second time he gets $4$ bucks, third time $3$, fourth $2$ and so on and if he gets it right in the seventh guess the person has to give a buck to Steve and so on, the value goes decreasing. I am trying to calculate the expected value of this game, how can I solve this, I can’t seem to come up with a way.
P.S. I have edited the question with a slight variation, in the previous version steve doesn’t tell you anything after you have guessed the wrong number.
probability probability-distributions random-variables
I was watching Steve Balmer’s interview and he was talking about questions they’d ask from candidates. This is a question he gave, he says-
I choose a number between $1$ to $100$, the other person has to guess the number. If he gets it right the first time he gets $5$ bucks, if he misses the first time steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower( he does this every time you miss), if he gets it right the second time he gets $4$ bucks, third time $3$, fourth $2$ and so on and if he gets it right in the seventh guess the person has to give a buck to Steve and so on, the value goes decreasing. I am trying to calculate the expected value of this game, how can I solve this, I can’t seem to come up with a way.
P.S. I have edited the question with a slight variation, in the previous version steve doesn’t tell you anything after you have guessed the wrong number.
probability probability-distributions random-variables
probability probability-distributions random-variables
edited Nov 30 at 22:07
asked Nov 30 at 18:46
user601297
644
644
Can you see why the probability you guess right during each time between $1$ and $100$ is the same?
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:51
6
Are you sure you haven't left something out, eg Steve has to tell you whether the number is larger or smaller than your guess? 2^6=64, 2^7=128, and I don't think it's a coincidence that after 7 guesses you pay out.
– Hong Ooi
Nov 30 at 20:50
@HongOoi is correct. Here's the actual interview (the problem statement starts at 00:35). Although this question has already been answered, so it's probably too late to edit it now.
– NotThatGuy
Nov 30 at 21:13
add a comment |
Can you see why the probability you guess right during each time between $1$ and $100$ is the same?
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:51
6
Are you sure you haven't left something out, eg Steve has to tell you whether the number is larger or smaller than your guess? 2^6=64, 2^7=128, and I don't think it's a coincidence that after 7 guesses you pay out.
– Hong Ooi
Nov 30 at 20:50
@HongOoi is correct. Here's the actual interview (the problem statement starts at 00:35). Although this question has already been answered, so it's probably too late to edit it now.
– NotThatGuy
Nov 30 at 21:13
Can you see why the probability you guess right during each time between $1$ and $100$ is the same?
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:51
Can you see why the probability you guess right during each time between $1$ and $100$ is the same?
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:51
6
6
Are you sure you haven't left something out, eg Steve has to tell you whether the number is larger or smaller than your guess? 2^6=64, 2^7=128, and I don't think it's a coincidence that after 7 guesses you pay out.
– Hong Ooi
Nov 30 at 20:50
Are you sure you haven't left something out, eg Steve has to tell you whether the number is larger or smaller than your guess? 2^6=64, 2^7=128, and I don't think it's a coincidence that after 7 guesses you pay out.
– Hong Ooi
Nov 30 at 20:50
@HongOoi is correct. Here's the actual interview (the problem statement starts at 00:35). Although this question has already been answered, so it's probably too late to edit it now.
– NotThatGuy
Nov 30 at 21:13
@HongOoi is correct. Here's the actual interview (the problem statement starts at 00:35). Although this question has already been answered, so it's probably too late to edit it now.
– NotThatGuy
Nov 30 at 21:13
add a comment |
4 Answers
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The answer posted by Jorge is right. Just to add some clarifications.
In the first try you have $frac 1 {100}$ chance of guessing it right. On the second guess, your chance increases to $frac 1 {99}$ as you know the answer isn't your guess and you aren't going to make the same guess. However, the probability that you are going to make the second guess (i.e. you guess the first one wrong) is $frac {99} {100}$ so the probability is again, $frac 1 {99}$ * $frac {99} {100}$
= $frac 1 {100}$. With same logic, your probability of guessing it right on the nth try is always $frac 1 {100}$
The rest of the calculation checks out.
$$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-45.5$$
Thank you for clarifying that. I thought it was 1/100 also every time, but I caught myself using the wrong reasoning.
– SpiralRain
Nov 30 at 19:05
I’m having a hard time understanding this, i get how you come to $frac{1}{100}$ for the second try but can you give the calculation for getting it right on the third try, shouldn’t it be $frac{1}{98}*frac{99}{100}$
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:32
For 3rd try, you'll have (probability of getting to 3rd pick) * (probability of getting it right). Probability of getting to 3rd pick is $frac {99} {100}$ * $frac {98} {99}$ because you have to first get 1st one wrong , then the second one wrong, and 3rd one right. So you'll get $frac {99} {100} * frac {98} {99} * frac {1} {98} = frac {1} {100}$
– Ofya
Nov 30 at 23:01
Thanks i got it.
– user601297
Dec 1 at 20:07
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up vote
3
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The probability you get it right at the i'th time is $frac{1}{100}$.
Thus the expected value of the game is $$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-44.5$$
assuming someone won't ignorantly re-guess numbers they've already guessed
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
and that they stop guessing once they've hit the correct number ... lol
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
1
Well I thought that was a reasonable assumption
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:57
1
That's the assumption for a candidate that Steve Balmer would hire, ;P
– I like Serena
Nov 30 at 19:01
Thanks a lot, I got it.
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:11
add a comment |
up vote
2
down vote
If Steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower then, you will at most lose a dollar.
Going by the binary approach, you start with 50, worst situation: more numbers on the side which Steve's number is, up you go 75(as 50 on higher side and 49 on the lower side), then 88, then 94, then 97, 99 and finally 98 or 100. Even if you start with 50 and the number is lower than 50, you still pay a dollar at most.
I have arbitrarily chosen the higher end in each case to have equal to or more numbers than the lower end.
Taking this to be the most conservative approach and that you only follow this, if you want to find the average amount gained or lost, find the value for each number (formulate, no need to solve for each) and take average.
New contributor
add a comment |
up vote
1
down vote
Let $X_t:=1{text{guess at stage $t$ is correct}}$ and let $T:=min{t:X_t=1}$. Then for $1le tle 100$,
begin{align}
mathsf{P}(T=t)&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1,X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1|X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0)timesmathsf{P}(X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=frac{1}{100-(t-1)}timesbinom{99}{t-1}binom{100}{t-1}^{-1}=frac{1}{100}.
end{align}
Thus, the stopping time $T$ is uniformly distributed on ${1,ldots,100}$ and its mean is $50.5$. Since at each step you loose $1$$, the mean loss is $6-50.5=-44.5$.
add a comment |
4 Answers
4
active
oldest
votes
4 Answers
4
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
up vote
10
down vote
The answer posted by Jorge is right. Just to add some clarifications.
In the first try you have $frac 1 {100}$ chance of guessing it right. On the second guess, your chance increases to $frac 1 {99}$ as you know the answer isn't your guess and you aren't going to make the same guess. However, the probability that you are going to make the second guess (i.e. you guess the first one wrong) is $frac {99} {100}$ so the probability is again, $frac 1 {99}$ * $frac {99} {100}$
= $frac 1 {100}$. With same logic, your probability of guessing it right on the nth try is always $frac 1 {100}$
The rest of the calculation checks out.
$$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-45.5$$
Thank you for clarifying that. I thought it was 1/100 also every time, but I caught myself using the wrong reasoning.
– SpiralRain
Nov 30 at 19:05
I’m having a hard time understanding this, i get how you come to $frac{1}{100}$ for the second try but can you give the calculation for getting it right on the third try, shouldn’t it be $frac{1}{98}*frac{99}{100}$
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:32
For 3rd try, you'll have (probability of getting to 3rd pick) * (probability of getting it right). Probability of getting to 3rd pick is $frac {99} {100}$ * $frac {98} {99}$ because you have to first get 1st one wrong , then the second one wrong, and 3rd one right. So you'll get $frac {99} {100} * frac {98} {99} * frac {1} {98} = frac {1} {100}$
– Ofya
Nov 30 at 23:01
Thanks i got it.
– user601297
Dec 1 at 20:07
add a comment |
up vote
10
down vote
The answer posted by Jorge is right. Just to add some clarifications.
In the first try you have $frac 1 {100}$ chance of guessing it right. On the second guess, your chance increases to $frac 1 {99}$ as you know the answer isn't your guess and you aren't going to make the same guess. However, the probability that you are going to make the second guess (i.e. you guess the first one wrong) is $frac {99} {100}$ so the probability is again, $frac 1 {99}$ * $frac {99} {100}$
= $frac 1 {100}$. With same logic, your probability of guessing it right on the nth try is always $frac 1 {100}$
The rest of the calculation checks out.
$$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-45.5$$
Thank you for clarifying that. I thought it was 1/100 also every time, but I caught myself using the wrong reasoning.
– SpiralRain
Nov 30 at 19:05
I’m having a hard time understanding this, i get how you come to $frac{1}{100}$ for the second try but can you give the calculation for getting it right on the third try, shouldn’t it be $frac{1}{98}*frac{99}{100}$
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:32
For 3rd try, you'll have (probability of getting to 3rd pick) * (probability of getting it right). Probability of getting to 3rd pick is $frac {99} {100}$ * $frac {98} {99}$ because you have to first get 1st one wrong , then the second one wrong, and 3rd one right. So you'll get $frac {99} {100} * frac {98} {99} * frac {1} {98} = frac {1} {100}$
– Ofya
Nov 30 at 23:01
Thanks i got it.
– user601297
Dec 1 at 20:07
add a comment |
up vote
10
down vote
up vote
10
down vote
The answer posted by Jorge is right. Just to add some clarifications.
In the first try you have $frac 1 {100}$ chance of guessing it right. On the second guess, your chance increases to $frac 1 {99}$ as you know the answer isn't your guess and you aren't going to make the same guess. However, the probability that you are going to make the second guess (i.e. you guess the first one wrong) is $frac {99} {100}$ so the probability is again, $frac 1 {99}$ * $frac {99} {100}$
= $frac 1 {100}$. With same logic, your probability of guessing it right on the nth try is always $frac 1 {100}$
The rest of the calculation checks out.
$$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-45.5$$
The answer posted by Jorge is right. Just to add some clarifications.
In the first try you have $frac 1 {100}$ chance of guessing it right. On the second guess, your chance increases to $frac 1 {99}$ as you know the answer isn't your guess and you aren't going to make the same guess. However, the probability that you are going to make the second guess (i.e. you guess the first one wrong) is $frac {99} {100}$ so the probability is again, $frac 1 {99}$ * $frac {99} {100}$
= $frac 1 {100}$. With same logic, your probability of guessing it right on the nth try is always $frac 1 {100}$
The rest of the calculation checks out.
$$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-45.5$$
edited Nov 30 at 19:54
Ruslan
3,68421533
3,68421533
answered Nov 30 at 19:00
Ofya
3747
3747
Thank you for clarifying that. I thought it was 1/100 also every time, but I caught myself using the wrong reasoning.
– SpiralRain
Nov 30 at 19:05
I’m having a hard time understanding this, i get how you come to $frac{1}{100}$ for the second try but can you give the calculation for getting it right on the third try, shouldn’t it be $frac{1}{98}*frac{99}{100}$
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:32
For 3rd try, you'll have (probability of getting to 3rd pick) * (probability of getting it right). Probability of getting to 3rd pick is $frac {99} {100}$ * $frac {98} {99}$ because you have to first get 1st one wrong , then the second one wrong, and 3rd one right. So you'll get $frac {99} {100} * frac {98} {99} * frac {1} {98} = frac {1} {100}$
– Ofya
Nov 30 at 23:01
Thanks i got it.
– user601297
Dec 1 at 20:07
add a comment |
Thank you for clarifying that. I thought it was 1/100 also every time, but I caught myself using the wrong reasoning.
– SpiralRain
Nov 30 at 19:05
I’m having a hard time understanding this, i get how you come to $frac{1}{100}$ for the second try but can you give the calculation for getting it right on the third try, shouldn’t it be $frac{1}{98}*frac{99}{100}$
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:32
For 3rd try, you'll have (probability of getting to 3rd pick) * (probability of getting it right). Probability of getting to 3rd pick is $frac {99} {100}$ * $frac {98} {99}$ because you have to first get 1st one wrong , then the second one wrong, and 3rd one right. So you'll get $frac {99} {100} * frac {98} {99} * frac {1} {98} = frac {1} {100}$
– Ofya
Nov 30 at 23:01
Thanks i got it.
– user601297
Dec 1 at 20:07
Thank you for clarifying that. I thought it was 1/100 also every time, but I caught myself using the wrong reasoning.
– SpiralRain
Nov 30 at 19:05
Thank you for clarifying that. I thought it was 1/100 also every time, but I caught myself using the wrong reasoning.
– SpiralRain
Nov 30 at 19:05
I’m having a hard time understanding this, i get how you come to $frac{1}{100}$ for the second try but can you give the calculation for getting it right on the third try, shouldn’t it be $frac{1}{98}*frac{99}{100}$
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:32
I’m having a hard time understanding this, i get how you come to $frac{1}{100}$ for the second try but can you give the calculation for getting it right on the third try, shouldn’t it be $frac{1}{98}*frac{99}{100}$
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:32
For 3rd try, you'll have (probability of getting to 3rd pick) * (probability of getting it right). Probability of getting to 3rd pick is $frac {99} {100}$ * $frac {98} {99}$ because you have to first get 1st one wrong , then the second one wrong, and 3rd one right. So you'll get $frac {99} {100} * frac {98} {99} * frac {1} {98} = frac {1} {100}$
– Ofya
Nov 30 at 23:01
For 3rd try, you'll have (probability of getting to 3rd pick) * (probability of getting it right). Probability of getting to 3rd pick is $frac {99} {100}$ * $frac {98} {99}$ because you have to first get 1st one wrong , then the second one wrong, and 3rd one right. So you'll get $frac {99} {100} * frac {98} {99} * frac {1} {98} = frac {1} {100}$
– Ofya
Nov 30 at 23:01
Thanks i got it.
– user601297
Dec 1 at 20:07
Thanks i got it.
– user601297
Dec 1 at 20:07
add a comment |
up vote
3
down vote
The probability you get it right at the i'th time is $frac{1}{100}$.
Thus the expected value of the game is $$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-44.5$$
assuming someone won't ignorantly re-guess numbers they've already guessed
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
and that they stop guessing once they've hit the correct number ... lol
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
1
Well I thought that was a reasonable assumption
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:57
1
That's the assumption for a candidate that Steve Balmer would hire, ;P
– I like Serena
Nov 30 at 19:01
Thanks a lot, I got it.
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:11
add a comment |
up vote
3
down vote
The probability you get it right at the i'th time is $frac{1}{100}$.
Thus the expected value of the game is $$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-44.5$$
assuming someone won't ignorantly re-guess numbers they've already guessed
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
and that they stop guessing once they've hit the correct number ... lol
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
1
Well I thought that was a reasonable assumption
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:57
1
That's the assumption for a candidate that Steve Balmer would hire, ;P
– I like Serena
Nov 30 at 19:01
Thanks a lot, I got it.
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:11
add a comment |
up vote
3
down vote
up vote
3
down vote
The probability you get it right at the i'th time is $frac{1}{100}$.
Thus the expected value of the game is $$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-44.5$$
The probability you get it right at the i'th time is $frac{1}{100}$.
Thus the expected value of the game is $$sumlimits_{i=1}^{100} frac{6-i}{100} = 6 - frac{100times 101}{2times 100}=6-50.5=-44.5$$
edited Nov 30 at 19:54
Ruslan
3,68421533
3,68421533
answered Nov 30 at 18:54
Jorge Fernández
74.9k1089190
74.9k1089190
assuming someone won't ignorantly re-guess numbers they've already guessed
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
and that they stop guessing once they've hit the correct number ... lol
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
1
Well I thought that was a reasonable assumption
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:57
1
That's the assumption for a candidate that Steve Balmer would hire, ;P
– I like Serena
Nov 30 at 19:01
Thanks a lot, I got it.
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:11
add a comment |
assuming someone won't ignorantly re-guess numbers they've already guessed
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
and that they stop guessing once they've hit the correct number ... lol
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
1
Well I thought that was a reasonable assumption
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:57
1
That's the assumption for a candidate that Steve Balmer would hire, ;P
– I like Serena
Nov 30 at 19:01
Thanks a lot, I got it.
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:11
assuming someone won't ignorantly re-guess numbers they've already guessed
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
assuming someone won't ignorantly re-guess numbers they've already guessed
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
and that they stop guessing once they've hit the correct number ... lol
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
and that they stop guessing once they've hit the correct number ... lol
– phdmba7of12
Nov 30 at 18:56
1
1
Well I thought that was a reasonable assumption
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:57
Well I thought that was a reasonable assumption
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:57
1
1
That's the assumption for a candidate that Steve Balmer would hire, ;P
– I like Serena
Nov 30 at 19:01
That's the assumption for a candidate that Steve Balmer would hire, ;P
– I like Serena
Nov 30 at 19:01
Thanks a lot, I got it.
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:11
Thanks a lot, I got it.
– user601297
Nov 30 at 22:11
add a comment |
up vote
2
down vote
If Steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower then, you will at most lose a dollar.
Going by the binary approach, you start with 50, worst situation: more numbers on the side which Steve's number is, up you go 75(as 50 on higher side and 49 on the lower side), then 88, then 94, then 97, 99 and finally 98 or 100. Even if you start with 50 and the number is lower than 50, you still pay a dollar at most.
I have arbitrarily chosen the higher end in each case to have equal to or more numbers than the lower end.
Taking this to be the most conservative approach and that you only follow this, if you want to find the average amount gained or lost, find the value for each number (formulate, no need to solve for each) and take average.
New contributor
add a comment |
up vote
2
down vote
If Steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower then, you will at most lose a dollar.
Going by the binary approach, you start with 50, worst situation: more numbers on the side which Steve's number is, up you go 75(as 50 on higher side and 49 on the lower side), then 88, then 94, then 97, 99 and finally 98 or 100. Even if you start with 50 and the number is lower than 50, you still pay a dollar at most.
I have arbitrarily chosen the higher end in each case to have equal to or more numbers than the lower end.
Taking this to be the most conservative approach and that you only follow this, if you want to find the average amount gained or lost, find the value for each number (formulate, no need to solve for each) and take average.
New contributor
add a comment |
up vote
2
down vote
up vote
2
down vote
If Steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower then, you will at most lose a dollar.
Going by the binary approach, you start with 50, worst situation: more numbers on the side which Steve's number is, up you go 75(as 50 on higher side and 49 on the lower side), then 88, then 94, then 97, 99 and finally 98 or 100. Even if you start with 50 and the number is lower than 50, you still pay a dollar at most.
I have arbitrarily chosen the higher end in each case to have equal to or more numbers than the lower end.
Taking this to be the most conservative approach and that you only follow this, if you want to find the average amount gained or lost, find the value for each number (formulate, no need to solve for each) and take average.
New contributor
If Steve tells you whether the number is higher or lower then, you will at most lose a dollar.
Going by the binary approach, you start with 50, worst situation: more numbers on the side which Steve's number is, up you go 75(as 50 on higher side and 49 on the lower side), then 88, then 94, then 97, 99 and finally 98 or 100. Even if you start with 50 and the number is lower than 50, you still pay a dollar at most.
I have arbitrarily chosen the higher end in each case to have equal to or more numbers than the lower end.
Taking this to be the most conservative approach and that you only follow this, if you want to find the average amount gained or lost, find the value for each number (formulate, no need to solve for each) and take average.
New contributor
New contributor
answered Nov 30 at 22:46
Delta Unicron
173
173
New contributor
New contributor
add a comment |
add a comment |
up vote
1
down vote
Let $X_t:=1{text{guess at stage $t$ is correct}}$ and let $T:=min{t:X_t=1}$. Then for $1le tle 100$,
begin{align}
mathsf{P}(T=t)&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1,X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1|X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0)timesmathsf{P}(X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=frac{1}{100-(t-1)}timesbinom{99}{t-1}binom{100}{t-1}^{-1}=frac{1}{100}.
end{align}
Thus, the stopping time $T$ is uniformly distributed on ${1,ldots,100}$ and its mean is $50.5$. Since at each step you loose $1$$, the mean loss is $6-50.5=-44.5$.
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Let $X_t:=1{text{guess at stage $t$ is correct}}$ and let $T:=min{t:X_t=1}$. Then for $1le tle 100$,
begin{align}
mathsf{P}(T=t)&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1,X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1|X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0)timesmathsf{P}(X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=frac{1}{100-(t-1)}timesbinom{99}{t-1}binom{100}{t-1}^{-1}=frac{1}{100}.
end{align}
Thus, the stopping time $T$ is uniformly distributed on ${1,ldots,100}$ and its mean is $50.5$. Since at each step you loose $1$$, the mean loss is $6-50.5=-44.5$.
add a comment |
up vote
1
down vote
up vote
1
down vote
Let $X_t:=1{text{guess at stage $t$ is correct}}$ and let $T:=min{t:X_t=1}$. Then for $1le tle 100$,
begin{align}
mathsf{P}(T=t)&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1,X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1|X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0)timesmathsf{P}(X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=frac{1}{100-(t-1)}timesbinom{99}{t-1}binom{100}{t-1}^{-1}=frac{1}{100}.
end{align}
Thus, the stopping time $T$ is uniformly distributed on ${1,ldots,100}$ and its mean is $50.5$. Since at each step you loose $1$$, the mean loss is $6-50.5=-44.5$.
Let $X_t:=1{text{guess at stage $t$ is correct}}$ and let $T:=min{t:X_t=1}$. Then for $1le tle 100$,
begin{align}
mathsf{P}(T=t)&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1,X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=mathsf{P}(X_t=1|X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0)timesmathsf{P}(X_{t-1}=0,ldots,X_1=0) \
&=frac{1}{100-(t-1)}timesbinom{99}{t-1}binom{100}{t-1}^{-1}=frac{1}{100}.
end{align}
Thus, the stopping time $T$ is uniformly distributed on ${1,ldots,100}$ and its mean is $50.5$. Since at each step you loose $1$$, the mean loss is $6-50.5=-44.5$.
edited Nov 30 at 22:28
answered Nov 30 at 20:23
d.k.o.
8,234527
8,234527
add a comment |
add a comment |
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Can you see why the probability you guess right during each time between $1$ and $100$ is the same?
– Jorge Fernández
Nov 30 at 18:51
6
Are you sure you haven't left something out, eg Steve has to tell you whether the number is larger or smaller than your guess? 2^6=64, 2^7=128, and I don't think it's a coincidence that after 7 guesses you pay out.
– Hong Ooi
Nov 30 at 20:50
@HongOoi is correct. Here's the actual interview (the problem statement starts at 00:35). Although this question has already been answered, so it's probably too late to edit it now.
– NotThatGuy
Nov 30 at 21:13