Why is the EU concerned about the UK “unilaterally withdrawing” from a proposed Irish backstop?











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As I understand, one of the sticking points in the Brexit negotiations has been Britain's level of obligation to a proposed customs union backstop.



I understand also that this is essentially a transitional arrangement to keep the entirety of the UK in a de-facto customs union and single market, to avoid either the physical division of Ireland or the political division of the United Kingdom (the clue being in the name).



What I don't think I fully appreciate is why the EU objects to the UK having the power to walk away from a backstop before a new arrangement is found. Is the reason economic - because it creates uncertainty? Is the reason diplomatic - because it undermines the EU's position in the subsequent talks? Or is there another subtlety I haven't grasped?










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    Comments deleted. Please don't use comments to answer the question. If you would like to answer, please post a real answer.
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As I understand, one of the sticking points in the Brexit negotiations has been Britain's level of obligation to a proposed customs union backstop.



I understand also that this is essentially a transitional arrangement to keep the entirety of the UK in a de-facto customs union and single market, to avoid either the physical division of Ireland or the political division of the United Kingdom (the clue being in the name).



What I don't think I fully appreciate is why the EU objects to the UK having the power to walk away from a backstop before a new arrangement is found. Is the reason economic - because it creates uncertainty? Is the reason diplomatic - because it undermines the EU's position in the subsequent talks? Or is there another subtlety I haven't grasped?










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As I understand, one of the sticking points in the Brexit negotiations has been Britain's level of obligation to a proposed customs union backstop.



I understand also that this is essentially a transitional arrangement to keep the entirety of the UK in a de-facto customs union and single market, to avoid either the physical division of Ireland or the political division of the United Kingdom (the clue being in the name).



What I don't think I fully appreciate is why the EU objects to the UK having the power to walk away from a backstop before a new arrangement is found. Is the reason economic - because it creates uncertainty? Is the reason diplomatic - because it undermines the EU's position in the subsequent talks? Or is there another subtlety I haven't grasped?










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As I understand, one of the sticking points in the Brexit negotiations has been Britain's level of obligation to a proposed customs union backstop.



I understand also that this is essentially a transitional arrangement to keep the entirety of the UK in a de-facto customs union and single market, to avoid either the physical division of Ireland or the political division of the United Kingdom (the clue being in the name).



What I don't think I fully appreciate is why the EU objects to the UK having the power to walk away from a backstop before a new arrangement is found. Is the reason economic - because it creates uncertainty? Is the reason diplomatic - because it undermines the EU's position in the subsequent talks? Or is there another subtlety I haven't grasped?







united-kingdom european-union brexit treaty






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The EU is acting in the interests of the remaining 27 members. In this case it is specifically acting in the interests and on the instructions of the Republic of Ireland, which opposes a hard border under any circumstances.



The Republic of Ireland, and so the EU, are opposed to the UK having the ability to unilaterally exit the backstop as it removes any power they (IRE & EU) have to ensure that a hard border is avoided.






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  • 12




    In other words, the EU hasn't yet got its collective head around the fact that the hypothetical fluff they put in the treaty about "a member leaving the EU" actually wasn't hypothetical at all, and they are desperately trying to set up a scenario where "leaving" doesn't actually mean "leaving."
    – alephzero
    yesterday








  • 75




    @alephzero, the Irish border is a real problem, not something the EU made up just to be difficult.
    – Harry Johnston
    yesterday






  • 25




    @JamesMoore But it is perfectly normal, and in everyday currency,to use the term "Republic of Ireland", so as to distinguish that sovereign territory from Northern Ireland, and to be clear that one is not speaking of the island of Ireland as a whole. In the same way it used to be accepted, for clarity's sake to speak of East Germany and West Germany, even though they were not the names of the countries concerned. Similarly it is the case still with North Korea and South Korea - they are not their official names.
    – WS2
    yesterday








  • 7




    @JamesMoore It's officially ok to refer to it as the Republic Of Ireland. And unofficially it makes this answer less confusing to make a clear distinction between the Republic Of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the island of Ireland. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland_Act_1948
    – Schwern
    yesterday






  • 48




    @alephzero A hard border would violate one of the key tenants of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles and has saved hundreds of lives. The EU is protecting its members, that's what a union is for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
    – Schwern
    yesterday




















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What's so important about the border? It's because dividing Ireland means an open invitation for a civil war again. The Troubles may or may not materialize again, but everybody would rather play it safe than find out.



EU doesn't want that. UK can't really be trusted they won't break the agreement that ended The Troubles, because some of the factions in power in UK act like they don't care about peace in Ireland.



Tying the backstop to the rest of the deal means that the deal is held hostage by the backstop. It basically sours the pot for the UK in case they consider bringing civil war back to Ireland. That's what makes it so attractive for Ireland, EU, and some in UK. Without the connection, UK could bring hard border back and retain eg. ability to import medicines from EU. With the connection, UK gets hit twice: once with risk inherent to hard border and secondly, with cutting down economic ties to EU (what makes the risk of eventual civil war even costlier, eg. without medicines to patch up SAS soldiers wounded in NI firefights).



Assuming that UK doesn't actually want hard border, they objectively lose nothing. The only thing they lose is face, because voters view it as giving up some options. And that's way more than it sounds, because the whole Brexit is about giving UK some options.






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  • 28




    My personal opinion is that keeping the status quo of NI is possible only when both UK and Éire are parts of one, bigger thing. This way Republicans can act like they're in Éire, Unionists can act like they're in UK and everybody's happy. The very idea of Brexit is against peace in NI. UK government has demonstrated irresponsibility in this matter by allowing the referendum, they've played "all in" being sure to win - and lost. Twice, if one counts the extra elections. Now, nobody can trust UK to do the right thing, and this makes negotiations harder.
    – Agent_L
    2 days ago












  • Hard to imagine describing NI/Ireland troubles resurgence as "a civil war" when they are already divided i.e. not the same state
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday






  • 17




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit The Troubles happened inside Northern Ireland. It's "NI people who want to join Republic" vs "NI people who want to remain in UK". Dublin is not a side in this conflict. Hence I used the term "civil war". The "civil" part is unquestionable, although I exaggerated the "war" part.
    – Agent_L
    yesterday






  • 3




    Oh, right, civil war within NI. Sorry that makes sense.
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday












  • @LightnessRacesinOrbit Well, by definition, civil war in NI = civil war in UK.
    – Araucaria
    16 hours ago




















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If either party can walk away unilaterally from part of an agreement, then what use is the negotiation in the first place? In this instance if the UK walks away from the backstop proposals unilaterally, this means there would not be a replacement agreement to deal with the issue of the Irish Border and the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), because by definition if there was such an agreement it would be bilateral.



The EU is concerned that allowing the UK to unilaterally change a part of the deal leaves the island of Ireland in a constant limbo with no clear picture of what state the border will be in next year, or potentially next week. Any change to conditions on the Irish Border risk the GFA and if done unilaterally would lead to a chaotic situation where it would be unclear under what principals goods and/or people could move across the NI/Eire border.






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  • 1




    Not sure what the risk is "next week"?
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday






  • 3




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit it means that you can't predict what the situation will be even over a short period of time.
    – Jontia
    yesterday










  • The UK is in the EU until next year no matter what
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday










  • @LightnessRacesinOrbit And regardless, borders are between states, not in them.
    – DoctorDestructo
    21 hours ago






  • 12




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit The statement is phrased from a future point of view, not necessarily right his instant. "Next week" doesn't mean "the week of November 19th", but rather "at some point in the future, after Brexit has occurred, it would be impossible to predict the situation a week in advance, because the UK is allowed to walk away from the agreement on a whim."
    – amalloy
    20 hours ago




















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Why is the EU concerned about the UK “unilaterally withdrawing” from a backstop




I don't think that is an accurate description of the issue.



Backstop



UK Pro-Brexit MPs want a backstop to have a time limit or clear exit route. This is because they believe that locking the UK into the EU's customs union indefinitely would mean the UK could not have a meaningful independent trade policy.



The Irish government assert that the backstop cannot have an arbitrary end point but must apply unless and until some other political or technical development means it is no longer needed.



(paraphrased from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404 - my emphasis)



Hard Borders



The UK government has said it does not want a hard border in the island of Ireland, so there is general agreement in the whole of the EU on that fundamental point. So far as I know, no major UK political party has proposed a hard border in the island of Ireland.



The BBC report




There is widespread agreement among UK politicians that there should be no return to what they call a hard border and that the Common Travel Area (CTA) should be maintained after Brexit.




Keeping agreements



The issue isn't whether the current or future UK government can be trusted to keep agreements it or it's predecessors have made.



If you don't trust someone to keep an agreement, you generally don't solve the trust issue by negotiating another agreement with them.



The point is to make sure that any agreement clearly and unambiguously meets the concerns of all parties to that agreement.



Unilateral withdrawal



So far as I know, governments only unilaterally withdraw from an agreement if the agreement provides for them to do so (but see Vienna convention below). For example article 50 of the treaty of Lisbon provides a mechanism by which an EU member state can arbitrarily and unilaterally withdraw from the union. It says "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements"



So far as I can discern, the main pro-Brexit viewpoint is not that there should be a unilateral withdrawal clause to the backstop but that there should be a clause which describes the pre-agreed circumstances under which the backstop would become no longer needed to meet UK or IE concerns (e.g. perhaps a clear definition meeting the "some other political or technical development" of the Irish government's position).



The Irish Times puts it thus:




The breakthrough came with an agreement on a review mechanism that would determine when the backstop is no longer necessary to ensure that the Border remains open after Brexit.



The backstop is an insurance policy written into the withdrawal agreement guaranteeing no harder border on the island of Ireland. It would only be used as a last resort or the default option if the EU and UK cannot reach an overarching free trade deal that would make trade so frictionless that there would be no border between the EU and the UK, including on the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic.




Vienna convention




The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties states where a party wants to withdraw unilaterally from a treaty that is silent on secession, there are only two cases where withdrawal is allowed: where all parties recognise an informal right to do so and where the situation has changed so drastically, that the obligations of a signatory have been radically transformed.







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  • The trouble with a term like "hard border" is it means different things to different people. Does a border with no permanent barriers but number plate scanners and targetted customs inspections count as a "hard border"?
    – Peter Green
    1 hour ago










  • @PeterGreen: The term is essentially undefined. Some Irish politicians say "harder border" rather than "hard border". So far as I can tell, the border arrangements are not defined or even mentioned in the 1998 British-Irish Agreement (also known as The Belfast Agreement / The Good Friday Agreement)
    – RedGrittyBrick
    44 mins ago




















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The UK's unwritten constitution has the provision that current parliament cannot tie the hands of future ones in most cases. Therefore any promises made by the current government regarding the Irish border can only be enforced by international treaty, not merely by UK law (which can be repealed/amended unilaterally by future governments).






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  • 3




    Parliaments, not governments. It’s Parliament that is sovereign, not the government.
    – Mike Scott
    yesterday










  • Side note: The provision is written down in The Law of the Constitution (1885), pp 39-40.
    – RedGrittyBrick
    1 hour ago


















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All parties want to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but the problem is that the UK also wants to be free to trade with anyone they want, even if that trade violates EU rules.



If the EU agreed to allow the UK to do this, and also allowed for there to be no hard border in Ireland, it would end up compromising the EU borders. The UK would be free to import goods from anywhere in the world, and then export those goods to the EU. The UK would essentially become a backdoor into the EU. It's pretty obvious that they cannot allow this situation to happen.



The UK want to have their cake and eat it. They want to both be part of the EU (no hard border in Ireland), and not part of the EU (free to make their own trade rules). These two aims are in direct opposition.






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    +1, but I would add that there are potential solutions, e.g., the proposal to place a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Or Northern Ireland could become an independent nation, or even part of the Republic. It's just that the UK don't like those ideas either, and to be fair, they would probably result in just about as much trouble as breaking the Good Friday Agreement would.
    – Harry Johnston
    19 hours ago


















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Many important points have already been made but one thing missing is that the backstop is emphatically not a transitional agreement. It's a fallback position if at some point in the future the arrangements between the UK and the EU fail to guarantee a border without physical infrastructure. It would not come into force in March 2019 when UK-Irish trade is still covered by the so-called “transition period” rules. In fact, it's not supposed to ever come into force, if you believe the claims that it should be possible to agree to some trade agreement that would deal with the border issue before the end of the transition period.






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    The EU is simply insisting that the UK stick to other commitments that it has made to EU members, in this case the Good Friday Agreement with Ireland. That agreement can only be modified with the consent of the voters of both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the former of whom didn’t vote on Brexit and the latter of whom voted against it. If the Brexiters want a looser relationship with the EU while keeping the UK intact, then democracy requires that they convince those voters, not just the voters of England and Wales. Since they haven’t done so, then the UK must stay aligned with the EU in many ways to enable the border to stay open.






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    • I'm not sure it would make any difference if Northern Ireland had voted for Brexit; the Irish republicans would presumably still demand that the GFA be enforced.
      – Harry Johnston
      19 hours ago











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    The EU is acting in the interests of the remaining 27 members. In this case it is specifically acting in the interests and on the instructions of the Republic of Ireland, which opposes a hard border under any circumstances.



    The Republic of Ireland, and so the EU, are opposed to the UK having the ability to unilaterally exit the backstop as it removes any power they (IRE & EU) have to ensure that a hard border is avoided.






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    • 12




      In other words, the EU hasn't yet got its collective head around the fact that the hypothetical fluff they put in the treaty about "a member leaving the EU" actually wasn't hypothetical at all, and they are desperately trying to set up a scenario where "leaving" doesn't actually mean "leaving."
      – alephzero
      yesterday








    • 75




      @alephzero, the Irish border is a real problem, not something the EU made up just to be difficult.
      – Harry Johnston
      yesterday






    • 25




      @JamesMoore But it is perfectly normal, and in everyday currency,to use the term "Republic of Ireland", so as to distinguish that sovereign territory from Northern Ireland, and to be clear that one is not speaking of the island of Ireland as a whole. In the same way it used to be accepted, for clarity's sake to speak of East Germany and West Germany, even though they were not the names of the countries concerned. Similarly it is the case still with North Korea and South Korea - they are not their official names.
      – WS2
      yesterday








    • 7




      @JamesMoore It's officially ok to refer to it as the Republic Of Ireland. And unofficially it makes this answer less confusing to make a clear distinction between the Republic Of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the island of Ireland. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland_Act_1948
      – Schwern
      yesterday






    • 48




      @alephzero A hard border would violate one of the key tenants of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles and has saved hundreds of lives. The EU is protecting its members, that's what a union is for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
      – Schwern
      yesterday

















    up vote
    55
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    The EU is acting in the interests of the remaining 27 members. In this case it is specifically acting in the interests and on the instructions of the Republic of Ireland, which opposes a hard border under any circumstances.



    The Republic of Ireland, and so the EU, are opposed to the UK having the ability to unilaterally exit the backstop as it removes any power they (IRE & EU) have to ensure that a hard border is avoided.






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    • 12




      In other words, the EU hasn't yet got its collective head around the fact that the hypothetical fluff they put in the treaty about "a member leaving the EU" actually wasn't hypothetical at all, and they are desperately trying to set up a scenario where "leaving" doesn't actually mean "leaving."
      – alephzero
      yesterday








    • 75




      @alephzero, the Irish border is a real problem, not something the EU made up just to be difficult.
      – Harry Johnston
      yesterday






    • 25




      @JamesMoore But it is perfectly normal, and in everyday currency,to use the term "Republic of Ireland", so as to distinguish that sovereign territory from Northern Ireland, and to be clear that one is not speaking of the island of Ireland as a whole. In the same way it used to be accepted, for clarity's sake to speak of East Germany and West Germany, even though they were not the names of the countries concerned. Similarly it is the case still with North Korea and South Korea - they are not their official names.
      – WS2
      yesterday








    • 7




      @JamesMoore It's officially ok to refer to it as the Republic Of Ireland. And unofficially it makes this answer less confusing to make a clear distinction between the Republic Of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the island of Ireland. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland_Act_1948
      – Schwern
      yesterday






    • 48




      @alephzero A hard border would violate one of the key tenants of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles and has saved hundreds of lives. The EU is protecting its members, that's what a union is for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
      – Schwern
      yesterday















    up vote
    55
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    up vote
    55
    down vote









    The EU is acting in the interests of the remaining 27 members. In this case it is specifically acting in the interests and on the instructions of the Republic of Ireland, which opposes a hard border under any circumstances.



    The Republic of Ireland, and so the EU, are opposed to the UK having the ability to unilaterally exit the backstop as it removes any power they (IRE & EU) have to ensure that a hard border is avoided.






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    The EU is acting in the interests of the remaining 27 members. In this case it is specifically acting in the interests and on the instructions of the Republic of Ireland, which opposes a hard border under any circumstances.



    The Republic of Ireland, and so the EU, are opposed to the UK having the ability to unilaterally exit the backstop as it removes any power they (IRE & EU) have to ensure that a hard border is avoided.







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    answered 2 days ago









    stuart10

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    • 12




      In other words, the EU hasn't yet got its collective head around the fact that the hypothetical fluff they put in the treaty about "a member leaving the EU" actually wasn't hypothetical at all, and they are desperately trying to set up a scenario where "leaving" doesn't actually mean "leaving."
      – alephzero
      yesterday








    • 75




      @alephzero, the Irish border is a real problem, not something the EU made up just to be difficult.
      – Harry Johnston
      yesterday






    • 25




      @JamesMoore But it is perfectly normal, and in everyday currency,to use the term "Republic of Ireland", so as to distinguish that sovereign territory from Northern Ireland, and to be clear that one is not speaking of the island of Ireland as a whole. In the same way it used to be accepted, for clarity's sake to speak of East Germany and West Germany, even though they were not the names of the countries concerned. Similarly it is the case still with North Korea and South Korea - they are not their official names.
      – WS2
      yesterday








    • 7




      @JamesMoore It's officially ok to refer to it as the Republic Of Ireland. And unofficially it makes this answer less confusing to make a clear distinction between the Republic Of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the island of Ireland. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland_Act_1948
      – Schwern
      yesterday






    • 48




      @alephzero A hard border would violate one of the key tenants of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles and has saved hundreds of lives. The EU is protecting its members, that's what a union is for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
      – Schwern
      yesterday
















    • 12




      In other words, the EU hasn't yet got its collective head around the fact that the hypothetical fluff they put in the treaty about "a member leaving the EU" actually wasn't hypothetical at all, and they are desperately trying to set up a scenario where "leaving" doesn't actually mean "leaving."
      – alephzero
      yesterday








    • 75




      @alephzero, the Irish border is a real problem, not something the EU made up just to be difficult.
      – Harry Johnston
      yesterday






    • 25




      @JamesMoore But it is perfectly normal, and in everyday currency,to use the term "Republic of Ireland", so as to distinguish that sovereign territory from Northern Ireland, and to be clear that one is not speaking of the island of Ireland as a whole. In the same way it used to be accepted, for clarity's sake to speak of East Germany and West Germany, even though they were not the names of the countries concerned. Similarly it is the case still with North Korea and South Korea - they are not their official names.
      – WS2
      yesterday








    • 7




      @JamesMoore It's officially ok to refer to it as the Republic Of Ireland. And unofficially it makes this answer less confusing to make a clear distinction between the Republic Of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the island of Ireland. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland_Act_1948
      – Schwern
      yesterday






    • 48




      @alephzero A hard border would violate one of the key tenants of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles and has saved hundreds of lives. The EU is protecting its members, that's what a union is for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
      – Schwern
      yesterday










    12




    12




    In other words, the EU hasn't yet got its collective head around the fact that the hypothetical fluff they put in the treaty about "a member leaving the EU" actually wasn't hypothetical at all, and they are desperately trying to set up a scenario where "leaving" doesn't actually mean "leaving."
    – alephzero
    yesterday






    In other words, the EU hasn't yet got its collective head around the fact that the hypothetical fluff they put in the treaty about "a member leaving the EU" actually wasn't hypothetical at all, and they are desperately trying to set up a scenario where "leaving" doesn't actually mean "leaving."
    – alephzero
    yesterday






    75




    75




    @alephzero, the Irish border is a real problem, not something the EU made up just to be difficult.
    – Harry Johnston
    yesterday




    @alephzero, the Irish border is a real problem, not something the EU made up just to be difficult.
    – Harry Johnston
    yesterday




    25




    25




    @JamesMoore But it is perfectly normal, and in everyday currency,to use the term "Republic of Ireland", so as to distinguish that sovereign territory from Northern Ireland, and to be clear that one is not speaking of the island of Ireland as a whole. In the same way it used to be accepted, for clarity's sake to speak of East Germany and West Germany, even though they were not the names of the countries concerned. Similarly it is the case still with North Korea and South Korea - they are not their official names.
    – WS2
    yesterday






    @JamesMoore But it is perfectly normal, and in everyday currency,to use the term "Republic of Ireland", so as to distinguish that sovereign territory from Northern Ireland, and to be clear that one is not speaking of the island of Ireland as a whole. In the same way it used to be accepted, for clarity's sake to speak of East Germany and West Germany, even though they were not the names of the countries concerned. Similarly it is the case still with North Korea and South Korea - they are not their official names.
    – WS2
    yesterday






    7




    7




    @JamesMoore It's officially ok to refer to it as the Republic Of Ireland. And unofficially it makes this answer less confusing to make a clear distinction between the Republic Of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the island of Ireland. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland_Act_1948
    – Schwern
    yesterday




    @JamesMoore It's officially ok to refer to it as the Republic Of Ireland. And unofficially it makes this answer less confusing to make a clear distinction between the Republic Of Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the island of Ireland. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland_Act_1948
    – Schwern
    yesterday




    48




    48




    @alephzero A hard border would violate one of the key tenants of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles and has saved hundreds of lives. The EU is protecting its members, that's what a union is for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
    – Schwern
    yesterday






    @alephzero A hard border would violate one of the key tenants of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles and has saved hundreds of lives. The EU is protecting its members, that's what a union is for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
    – Schwern
    yesterday












    up vote
    33
    down vote













    What's so important about the border? It's because dividing Ireland means an open invitation for a civil war again. The Troubles may or may not materialize again, but everybody would rather play it safe than find out.



    EU doesn't want that. UK can't really be trusted they won't break the agreement that ended The Troubles, because some of the factions in power in UK act like they don't care about peace in Ireland.



    Tying the backstop to the rest of the deal means that the deal is held hostage by the backstop. It basically sours the pot for the UK in case they consider bringing civil war back to Ireland. That's what makes it so attractive for Ireland, EU, and some in UK. Without the connection, UK could bring hard border back and retain eg. ability to import medicines from EU. With the connection, UK gets hit twice: once with risk inherent to hard border and secondly, with cutting down economic ties to EU (what makes the risk of eventual civil war even costlier, eg. without medicines to patch up SAS soldiers wounded in NI firefights).



    Assuming that UK doesn't actually want hard border, they objectively lose nothing. The only thing they lose is face, because voters view it as giving up some options. And that's way more than it sounds, because the whole Brexit is about giving UK some options.






    share|improve this answer

















    • 28




      My personal opinion is that keeping the status quo of NI is possible only when both UK and Éire are parts of one, bigger thing. This way Republicans can act like they're in Éire, Unionists can act like they're in UK and everybody's happy. The very idea of Brexit is against peace in NI. UK government has demonstrated irresponsibility in this matter by allowing the referendum, they've played "all in" being sure to win - and lost. Twice, if one counts the extra elections. Now, nobody can trust UK to do the right thing, and this makes negotiations harder.
      – Agent_L
      2 days ago












    • Hard to imagine describing NI/Ireland troubles resurgence as "a civil war" when they are already divided i.e. not the same state
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 17




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The Troubles happened inside Northern Ireland. It's "NI people who want to join Republic" vs "NI people who want to remain in UK". Dublin is not a side in this conflict. Hence I used the term "civil war". The "civil" part is unquestionable, although I exaggerated the "war" part.
      – Agent_L
      yesterday






    • 3




      Oh, right, civil war within NI. Sorry that makes sense.
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday












    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit Well, by definition, civil war in NI = civil war in UK.
      – Araucaria
      16 hours ago

















    up vote
    33
    down vote













    What's so important about the border? It's because dividing Ireland means an open invitation for a civil war again. The Troubles may or may not materialize again, but everybody would rather play it safe than find out.



    EU doesn't want that. UK can't really be trusted they won't break the agreement that ended The Troubles, because some of the factions in power in UK act like they don't care about peace in Ireland.



    Tying the backstop to the rest of the deal means that the deal is held hostage by the backstop. It basically sours the pot for the UK in case they consider bringing civil war back to Ireland. That's what makes it so attractive for Ireland, EU, and some in UK. Without the connection, UK could bring hard border back and retain eg. ability to import medicines from EU. With the connection, UK gets hit twice: once with risk inherent to hard border and secondly, with cutting down economic ties to EU (what makes the risk of eventual civil war even costlier, eg. without medicines to patch up SAS soldiers wounded in NI firefights).



    Assuming that UK doesn't actually want hard border, they objectively lose nothing. The only thing they lose is face, because voters view it as giving up some options. And that's way more than it sounds, because the whole Brexit is about giving UK some options.






    share|improve this answer

















    • 28




      My personal opinion is that keeping the status quo of NI is possible only when both UK and Éire are parts of one, bigger thing. This way Republicans can act like they're in Éire, Unionists can act like they're in UK and everybody's happy. The very idea of Brexit is against peace in NI. UK government has demonstrated irresponsibility in this matter by allowing the referendum, they've played "all in" being sure to win - and lost. Twice, if one counts the extra elections. Now, nobody can trust UK to do the right thing, and this makes negotiations harder.
      – Agent_L
      2 days ago












    • Hard to imagine describing NI/Ireland troubles resurgence as "a civil war" when they are already divided i.e. not the same state
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 17




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The Troubles happened inside Northern Ireland. It's "NI people who want to join Republic" vs "NI people who want to remain in UK". Dublin is not a side in this conflict. Hence I used the term "civil war". The "civil" part is unquestionable, although I exaggerated the "war" part.
      – Agent_L
      yesterday






    • 3




      Oh, right, civil war within NI. Sorry that makes sense.
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday












    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit Well, by definition, civil war in NI = civil war in UK.
      – Araucaria
      16 hours ago















    up vote
    33
    down vote










    up vote
    33
    down vote









    What's so important about the border? It's because dividing Ireland means an open invitation for a civil war again. The Troubles may or may not materialize again, but everybody would rather play it safe than find out.



    EU doesn't want that. UK can't really be trusted they won't break the agreement that ended The Troubles, because some of the factions in power in UK act like they don't care about peace in Ireland.



    Tying the backstop to the rest of the deal means that the deal is held hostage by the backstop. It basically sours the pot for the UK in case they consider bringing civil war back to Ireland. That's what makes it so attractive for Ireland, EU, and some in UK. Without the connection, UK could bring hard border back and retain eg. ability to import medicines from EU. With the connection, UK gets hit twice: once with risk inherent to hard border and secondly, with cutting down economic ties to EU (what makes the risk of eventual civil war even costlier, eg. without medicines to patch up SAS soldiers wounded in NI firefights).



    Assuming that UK doesn't actually want hard border, they objectively lose nothing. The only thing they lose is face, because voters view it as giving up some options. And that's way more than it sounds, because the whole Brexit is about giving UK some options.






    share|improve this answer












    What's so important about the border? It's because dividing Ireland means an open invitation for a civil war again. The Troubles may or may not materialize again, but everybody would rather play it safe than find out.



    EU doesn't want that. UK can't really be trusted they won't break the agreement that ended The Troubles, because some of the factions in power in UK act like they don't care about peace in Ireland.



    Tying the backstop to the rest of the deal means that the deal is held hostage by the backstop. It basically sours the pot for the UK in case they consider bringing civil war back to Ireland. That's what makes it so attractive for Ireland, EU, and some in UK. Without the connection, UK could bring hard border back and retain eg. ability to import medicines from EU. With the connection, UK gets hit twice: once with risk inherent to hard border and secondly, with cutting down economic ties to EU (what makes the risk of eventual civil war even costlier, eg. without medicines to patch up SAS soldiers wounded in NI firefights).



    Assuming that UK doesn't actually want hard border, they objectively lose nothing. The only thing they lose is face, because voters view it as giving up some options. And that's way more than it sounds, because the whole Brexit is about giving UK some options.







    share|improve this answer












    share|improve this answer



    share|improve this answer










    answered 2 days ago









    Agent_L

    61929




    61929








    • 28




      My personal opinion is that keeping the status quo of NI is possible only when both UK and Éire are parts of one, bigger thing. This way Republicans can act like they're in Éire, Unionists can act like they're in UK and everybody's happy. The very idea of Brexit is against peace in NI. UK government has demonstrated irresponsibility in this matter by allowing the referendum, they've played "all in" being sure to win - and lost. Twice, if one counts the extra elections. Now, nobody can trust UK to do the right thing, and this makes negotiations harder.
      – Agent_L
      2 days ago












    • Hard to imagine describing NI/Ireland troubles resurgence as "a civil war" when they are already divided i.e. not the same state
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 17




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The Troubles happened inside Northern Ireland. It's "NI people who want to join Republic" vs "NI people who want to remain in UK". Dublin is not a side in this conflict. Hence I used the term "civil war". The "civil" part is unquestionable, although I exaggerated the "war" part.
      – Agent_L
      yesterday






    • 3




      Oh, right, civil war within NI. Sorry that makes sense.
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday












    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit Well, by definition, civil war in NI = civil war in UK.
      – Araucaria
      16 hours ago
















    • 28




      My personal opinion is that keeping the status quo of NI is possible only when both UK and Éire are parts of one, bigger thing. This way Republicans can act like they're in Éire, Unionists can act like they're in UK and everybody's happy. The very idea of Brexit is against peace in NI. UK government has demonstrated irresponsibility in this matter by allowing the referendum, they've played "all in" being sure to win - and lost. Twice, if one counts the extra elections. Now, nobody can trust UK to do the right thing, and this makes negotiations harder.
      – Agent_L
      2 days ago












    • Hard to imagine describing NI/Ireland troubles resurgence as "a civil war" when they are already divided i.e. not the same state
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 17




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The Troubles happened inside Northern Ireland. It's "NI people who want to join Republic" vs "NI people who want to remain in UK". Dublin is not a side in this conflict. Hence I used the term "civil war". The "civil" part is unquestionable, although I exaggerated the "war" part.
      – Agent_L
      yesterday






    • 3




      Oh, right, civil war within NI. Sorry that makes sense.
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday












    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit Well, by definition, civil war in NI = civil war in UK.
      – Araucaria
      16 hours ago










    28




    28




    My personal opinion is that keeping the status quo of NI is possible only when both UK and Éire are parts of one, bigger thing. This way Republicans can act like they're in Éire, Unionists can act like they're in UK and everybody's happy. The very idea of Brexit is against peace in NI. UK government has demonstrated irresponsibility in this matter by allowing the referendum, they've played "all in" being sure to win - and lost. Twice, if one counts the extra elections. Now, nobody can trust UK to do the right thing, and this makes negotiations harder.
    – Agent_L
    2 days ago






    My personal opinion is that keeping the status quo of NI is possible only when both UK and Éire are parts of one, bigger thing. This way Republicans can act like they're in Éire, Unionists can act like they're in UK and everybody's happy. The very idea of Brexit is against peace in NI. UK government has demonstrated irresponsibility in this matter by allowing the referendum, they've played "all in" being sure to win - and lost. Twice, if one counts the extra elections. Now, nobody can trust UK to do the right thing, and this makes negotiations harder.
    – Agent_L
    2 days ago














    Hard to imagine describing NI/Ireland troubles resurgence as "a civil war" when they are already divided i.e. not the same state
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday




    Hard to imagine describing NI/Ireland troubles resurgence as "a civil war" when they are already divided i.e. not the same state
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday




    17




    17




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit The Troubles happened inside Northern Ireland. It's "NI people who want to join Republic" vs "NI people who want to remain in UK". Dublin is not a side in this conflict. Hence I used the term "civil war". The "civil" part is unquestionable, although I exaggerated the "war" part.
    – Agent_L
    yesterday




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit The Troubles happened inside Northern Ireland. It's "NI people who want to join Republic" vs "NI people who want to remain in UK". Dublin is not a side in this conflict. Hence I used the term "civil war". The "civil" part is unquestionable, although I exaggerated the "war" part.
    – Agent_L
    yesterday




    3




    3




    Oh, right, civil war within NI. Sorry that makes sense.
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday






    Oh, right, civil war within NI. Sorry that makes sense.
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday














    @LightnessRacesinOrbit Well, by definition, civil war in NI = civil war in UK.
    – Araucaria
    16 hours ago






    @LightnessRacesinOrbit Well, by definition, civil war in NI = civil war in UK.
    – Araucaria
    16 hours ago












    up vote
    27
    down vote













    If either party can walk away unilaterally from part of an agreement, then what use is the negotiation in the first place? In this instance if the UK walks away from the backstop proposals unilaterally, this means there would not be a replacement agreement to deal with the issue of the Irish Border and the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), because by definition if there was such an agreement it would be bilateral.



    The EU is concerned that allowing the UK to unilaterally change a part of the deal leaves the island of Ireland in a constant limbo with no clear picture of what state the border will be in next year, or potentially next week. Any change to conditions on the Irish Border risk the GFA and if done unilaterally would lead to a chaotic situation where it would be unclear under what principals goods and/or people could move across the NI/Eire border.






    share|improve this answer

















    • 1




      Not sure what the risk is "next week"?
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 3




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit it means that you can't predict what the situation will be even over a short period of time.
      – Jontia
      yesterday










    • The UK is in the EU until next year no matter what
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday










    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit And regardless, borders are between states, not in them.
      – DoctorDestructo
      21 hours ago






    • 12




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The statement is phrased from a future point of view, not necessarily right his instant. "Next week" doesn't mean "the week of November 19th", but rather "at some point in the future, after Brexit has occurred, it would be impossible to predict the situation a week in advance, because the UK is allowed to walk away from the agreement on a whim."
      – amalloy
      20 hours ago

















    up vote
    27
    down vote













    If either party can walk away unilaterally from part of an agreement, then what use is the negotiation in the first place? In this instance if the UK walks away from the backstop proposals unilaterally, this means there would not be a replacement agreement to deal with the issue of the Irish Border and the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), because by definition if there was such an agreement it would be bilateral.



    The EU is concerned that allowing the UK to unilaterally change a part of the deal leaves the island of Ireland in a constant limbo with no clear picture of what state the border will be in next year, or potentially next week. Any change to conditions on the Irish Border risk the GFA and if done unilaterally would lead to a chaotic situation where it would be unclear under what principals goods and/or people could move across the NI/Eire border.






    share|improve this answer

















    • 1




      Not sure what the risk is "next week"?
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 3




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit it means that you can't predict what the situation will be even over a short period of time.
      – Jontia
      yesterday










    • The UK is in the EU until next year no matter what
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday










    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit And regardless, borders are between states, not in them.
      – DoctorDestructo
      21 hours ago






    • 12




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The statement is phrased from a future point of view, not necessarily right his instant. "Next week" doesn't mean "the week of November 19th", but rather "at some point in the future, after Brexit has occurred, it would be impossible to predict the situation a week in advance, because the UK is allowed to walk away from the agreement on a whim."
      – amalloy
      20 hours ago















    up vote
    27
    down vote










    up vote
    27
    down vote









    If either party can walk away unilaterally from part of an agreement, then what use is the negotiation in the first place? In this instance if the UK walks away from the backstop proposals unilaterally, this means there would not be a replacement agreement to deal with the issue of the Irish Border and the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), because by definition if there was such an agreement it would be bilateral.



    The EU is concerned that allowing the UK to unilaterally change a part of the deal leaves the island of Ireland in a constant limbo with no clear picture of what state the border will be in next year, or potentially next week. Any change to conditions on the Irish Border risk the GFA and if done unilaterally would lead to a chaotic situation where it would be unclear under what principals goods and/or people could move across the NI/Eire border.






    share|improve this answer












    If either party can walk away unilaterally from part of an agreement, then what use is the negotiation in the first place? In this instance if the UK walks away from the backstop proposals unilaterally, this means there would not be a replacement agreement to deal with the issue of the Irish Border and the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), because by definition if there was such an agreement it would be bilateral.



    The EU is concerned that allowing the UK to unilaterally change a part of the deal leaves the island of Ireland in a constant limbo with no clear picture of what state the border will be in next year, or potentially next week. Any change to conditions on the Irish Border risk the GFA and if done unilaterally would lead to a chaotic situation where it would be unclear under what principals goods and/or people could move across the NI/Eire border.







    share|improve this answer












    share|improve this answer



    share|improve this answer










    answered 2 days ago









    Jontia

    2,1801220




    2,1801220








    • 1




      Not sure what the risk is "next week"?
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 3




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit it means that you can't predict what the situation will be even over a short period of time.
      – Jontia
      yesterday










    • The UK is in the EU until next year no matter what
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday










    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit And regardless, borders are between states, not in them.
      – DoctorDestructo
      21 hours ago






    • 12




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The statement is phrased from a future point of view, not necessarily right his instant. "Next week" doesn't mean "the week of November 19th", but rather "at some point in the future, after Brexit has occurred, it would be impossible to predict the situation a week in advance, because the UK is allowed to walk away from the agreement on a whim."
      – amalloy
      20 hours ago
















    • 1




      Not sure what the risk is "next week"?
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday






    • 3




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit it means that you can't predict what the situation will be even over a short period of time.
      – Jontia
      yesterday










    • The UK is in the EU until next year no matter what
      – Lightness Races in Orbit
      yesterday










    • @LightnessRacesinOrbit And regardless, borders are between states, not in them.
      – DoctorDestructo
      21 hours ago






    • 12




      @LightnessRacesinOrbit The statement is phrased from a future point of view, not necessarily right his instant. "Next week" doesn't mean "the week of November 19th", but rather "at some point in the future, after Brexit has occurred, it would be impossible to predict the situation a week in advance, because the UK is allowed to walk away from the agreement on a whim."
      – amalloy
      20 hours ago










    1




    1




    Not sure what the risk is "next week"?
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday




    Not sure what the risk is "next week"?
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday




    3




    3




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit it means that you can't predict what the situation will be even over a short period of time.
    – Jontia
    yesterday




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit it means that you can't predict what the situation will be even over a short period of time.
    – Jontia
    yesterday












    The UK is in the EU until next year no matter what
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday




    The UK is in the EU until next year no matter what
    – Lightness Races in Orbit
    yesterday












    @LightnessRacesinOrbit And regardless, borders are between states, not in them.
    – DoctorDestructo
    21 hours ago




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit And regardless, borders are between states, not in them.
    – DoctorDestructo
    21 hours ago




    12




    12




    @LightnessRacesinOrbit The statement is phrased from a future point of view, not necessarily right his instant. "Next week" doesn't mean "the week of November 19th", but rather "at some point in the future, after Brexit has occurred, it would be impossible to predict the situation a week in advance, because the UK is allowed to walk away from the agreement on a whim."
    – amalloy
    20 hours ago






    @LightnessRacesinOrbit The statement is phrased from a future point of view, not necessarily right his instant. "Next week" doesn't mean "the week of November 19th", but rather "at some point in the future, after Brexit has occurred, it would be impossible to predict the situation a week in advance, because the UK is allowed to walk away from the agreement on a whim."
    – amalloy
    20 hours ago












    up vote
    11
    down vote














    Why is the EU concerned about the UK “unilaterally withdrawing” from a backstop




    I don't think that is an accurate description of the issue.



    Backstop



    UK Pro-Brexit MPs want a backstop to have a time limit or clear exit route. This is because they believe that locking the UK into the EU's customs union indefinitely would mean the UK could not have a meaningful independent trade policy.



    The Irish government assert that the backstop cannot have an arbitrary end point but must apply unless and until some other political or technical development means it is no longer needed.



    (paraphrased from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404 - my emphasis)



    Hard Borders



    The UK government has said it does not want a hard border in the island of Ireland, so there is general agreement in the whole of the EU on that fundamental point. So far as I know, no major UK political party has proposed a hard border in the island of Ireland.



    The BBC report




    There is widespread agreement among UK politicians that there should be no return to what they call a hard border and that the Common Travel Area (CTA) should be maintained after Brexit.




    Keeping agreements



    The issue isn't whether the current or future UK government can be trusted to keep agreements it or it's predecessors have made.



    If you don't trust someone to keep an agreement, you generally don't solve the trust issue by negotiating another agreement with them.



    The point is to make sure that any agreement clearly and unambiguously meets the concerns of all parties to that agreement.



    Unilateral withdrawal



    So far as I know, governments only unilaterally withdraw from an agreement if the agreement provides for them to do so (but see Vienna convention below). For example article 50 of the treaty of Lisbon provides a mechanism by which an EU member state can arbitrarily and unilaterally withdraw from the union. It says "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements"



    So far as I can discern, the main pro-Brexit viewpoint is not that there should be a unilateral withdrawal clause to the backstop but that there should be a clause which describes the pre-agreed circumstances under which the backstop would become no longer needed to meet UK or IE concerns (e.g. perhaps a clear definition meeting the "some other political or technical development" of the Irish government's position).



    The Irish Times puts it thus:




    The breakthrough came with an agreement on a review mechanism that would determine when the backstop is no longer necessary to ensure that the Border remains open after Brexit.



    The backstop is an insurance policy written into the withdrawal agreement guaranteeing no harder border on the island of Ireland. It would only be used as a last resort or the default option if the EU and UK cannot reach an overarching free trade deal that would make trade so frictionless that there would be no border between the EU and the UK, including on the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic.




    Vienna convention




    The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties states where a party wants to withdraw unilaterally from a treaty that is silent on secession, there are only two cases where withdrawal is allowed: where all parties recognise an informal right to do so and where the situation has changed so drastically, that the obligations of a signatory have been radically transformed.







    share|improve this answer























    • The trouble with a term like "hard border" is it means different things to different people. Does a border with no permanent barriers but number plate scanners and targetted customs inspections count as a "hard border"?
      – Peter Green
      1 hour ago










    • @PeterGreen: The term is essentially undefined. Some Irish politicians say "harder border" rather than "hard border". So far as I can tell, the border arrangements are not defined or even mentioned in the 1998 British-Irish Agreement (also known as The Belfast Agreement / The Good Friday Agreement)
      – RedGrittyBrick
      44 mins ago

















    up vote
    11
    down vote














    Why is the EU concerned about the UK “unilaterally withdrawing” from a backstop




    I don't think that is an accurate description of the issue.



    Backstop



    UK Pro-Brexit MPs want a backstop to have a time limit or clear exit route. This is because they believe that locking the UK into the EU's customs union indefinitely would mean the UK could not have a meaningful independent trade policy.



    The Irish government assert that the backstop cannot have an arbitrary end point but must apply unless and until some other political or technical development means it is no longer needed.



    (paraphrased from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404 - my emphasis)



    Hard Borders



    The UK government has said it does not want a hard border in the island of Ireland, so there is general agreement in the whole of the EU on that fundamental point. So far as I know, no major UK political party has proposed a hard border in the island of Ireland.



    The BBC report




    There is widespread agreement among UK politicians that there should be no return to what they call a hard border and that the Common Travel Area (CTA) should be maintained after Brexit.




    Keeping agreements



    The issue isn't whether the current or future UK government can be trusted to keep agreements it or it's predecessors have made.



    If you don't trust someone to keep an agreement, you generally don't solve the trust issue by negotiating another agreement with them.



    The point is to make sure that any agreement clearly and unambiguously meets the concerns of all parties to that agreement.



    Unilateral withdrawal



    So far as I know, governments only unilaterally withdraw from an agreement if the agreement provides for them to do so (but see Vienna convention below). For example article 50 of the treaty of Lisbon provides a mechanism by which an EU member state can arbitrarily and unilaterally withdraw from the union. It says "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements"



    So far as I can discern, the main pro-Brexit viewpoint is not that there should be a unilateral withdrawal clause to the backstop but that there should be a clause which describes the pre-agreed circumstances under which the backstop would become no longer needed to meet UK or IE concerns (e.g. perhaps a clear definition meeting the "some other political or technical development" of the Irish government's position).



    The Irish Times puts it thus:




    The breakthrough came with an agreement on a review mechanism that would determine when the backstop is no longer necessary to ensure that the Border remains open after Brexit.



    The backstop is an insurance policy written into the withdrawal agreement guaranteeing no harder border on the island of Ireland. It would only be used as a last resort or the default option if the EU and UK cannot reach an overarching free trade deal that would make trade so frictionless that there would be no border between the EU and the UK, including on the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic.




    Vienna convention




    The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties states where a party wants to withdraw unilaterally from a treaty that is silent on secession, there are only two cases where withdrawal is allowed: where all parties recognise an informal right to do so and where the situation has changed so drastically, that the obligations of a signatory have been radically transformed.







    share|improve this answer























    • The trouble with a term like "hard border" is it means different things to different people. Does a border with no permanent barriers but number plate scanners and targetted customs inspections count as a "hard border"?
      – Peter Green
      1 hour ago










    • @PeterGreen: The term is essentially undefined. Some Irish politicians say "harder border" rather than "hard border". So far as I can tell, the border arrangements are not defined or even mentioned in the 1998 British-Irish Agreement (also known as The Belfast Agreement / The Good Friday Agreement)
      – RedGrittyBrick
      44 mins ago















    up vote
    11
    down vote










    up vote
    11
    down vote










    Why is the EU concerned about the UK “unilaterally withdrawing” from a backstop




    I don't think that is an accurate description of the issue.



    Backstop



    UK Pro-Brexit MPs want a backstop to have a time limit or clear exit route. This is because they believe that locking the UK into the EU's customs union indefinitely would mean the UK could not have a meaningful independent trade policy.



    The Irish government assert that the backstop cannot have an arbitrary end point but must apply unless and until some other political or technical development means it is no longer needed.



    (paraphrased from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404 - my emphasis)



    Hard Borders



    The UK government has said it does not want a hard border in the island of Ireland, so there is general agreement in the whole of the EU on that fundamental point. So far as I know, no major UK political party has proposed a hard border in the island of Ireland.



    The BBC report




    There is widespread agreement among UK politicians that there should be no return to what they call a hard border and that the Common Travel Area (CTA) should be maintained after Brexit.




    Keeping agreements



    The issue isn't whether the current or future UK government can be trusted to keep agreements it or it's predecessors have made.



    If you don't trust someone to keep an agreement, you generally don't solve the trust issue by negotiating another agreement with them.



    The point is to make sure that any agreement clearly and unambiguously meets the concerns of all parties to that agreement.



    Unilateral withdrawal



    So far as I know, governments only unilaterally withdraw from an agreement if the agreement provides for them to do so (but see Vienna convention below). For example article 50 of the treaty of Lisbon provides a mechanism by which an EU member state can arbitrarily and unilaterally withdraw from the union. It says "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements"



    So far as I can discern, the main pro-Brexit viewpoint is not that there should be a unilateral withdrawal clause to the backstop but that there should be a clause which describes the pre-agreed circumstances under which the backstop would become no longer needed to meet UK or IE concerns (e.g. perhaps a clear definition meeting the "some other political or technical development" of the Irish government's position).



    The Irish Times puts it thus:




    The breakthrough came with an agreement on a review mechanism that would determine when the backstop is no longer necessary to ensure that the Border remains open after Brexit.



    The backstop is an insurance policy written into the withdrawal agreement guaranteeing no harder border on the island of Ireland. It would only be used as a last resort or the default option if the EU and UK cannot reach an overarching free trade deal that would make trade so frictionless that there would be no border between the EU and the UK, including on the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic.




    Vienna convention




    The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties states where a party wants to withdraw unilaterally from a treaty that is silent on secession, there are only two cases where withdrawal is allowed: where all parties recognise an informal right to do so and where the situation has changed so drastically, that the obligations of a signatory have been radically transformed.







    share|improve this answer















    Why is the EU concerned about the UK “unilaterally withdrawing” from a backstop




    I don't think that is an accurate description of the issue.



    Backstop



    UK Pro-Brexit MPs want a backstop to have a time limit or clear exit route. This is because they believe that locking the UK into the EU's customs union indefinitely would mean the UK could not have a meaningful independent trade policy.



    The Irish government assert that the backstop cannot have an arbitrary end point but must apply unless and until some other political or technical development means it is no longer needed.



    (paraphrased from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404 - my emphasis)



    Hard Borders



    The UK government has said it does not want a hard border in the island of Ireland, so there is general agreement in the whole of the EU on that fundamental point. So far as I know, no major UK political party has proposed a hard border in the island of Ireland.



    The BBC report




    There is widespread agreement among UK politicians that there should be no return to what they call a hard border and that the Common Travel Area (CTA) should be maintained after Brexit.




    Keeping agreements



    The issue isn't whether the current or future UK government can be trusted to keep agreements it or it's predecessors have made.



    If you don't trust someone to keep an agreement, you generally don't solve the trust issue by negotiating another agreement with them.



    The point is to make sure that any agreement clearly and unambiguously meets the concerns of all parties to that agreement.



    Unilateral withdrawal



    So far as I know, governments only unilaterally withdraw from an agreement if the agreement provides for them to do so (but see Vienna convention below). For example article 50 of the treaty of Lisbon provides a mechanism by which an EU member state can arbitrarily and unilaterally withdraw from the union. It says "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements"



    So far as I can discern, the main pro-Brexit viewpoint is not that there should be a unilateral withdrawal clause to the backstop but that there should be a clause which describes the pre-agreed circumstances under which the backstop would become no longer needed to meet UK or IE concerns (e.g. perhaps a clear definition meeting the "some other political or technical development" of the Irish government's position).



    The Irish Times puts it thus:




    The breakthrough came with an agreement on a review mechanism that would determine when the backstop is no longer necessary to ensure that the Border remains open after Brexit.



    The backstop is an insurance policy written into the withdrawal agreement guaranteeing no harder border on the island of Ireland. It would only be used as a last resort or the default option if the EU and UK cannot reach an overarching free trade deal that would make trade so frictionless that there would be no border between the EU and the UK, including on the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic.




    Vienna convention




    The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties states where a party wants to withdraw unilaterally from a treaty that is silent on secession, there are only two cases where withdrawal is allowed: where all parties recognise an informal right to do so and where the situation has changed so drastically, that the obligations of a signatory have been radically transformed.








    share|improve this answer














    share|improve this answer



    share|improve this answer








    edited yesterday

























    answered yesterday









    RedGrittyBrick

    3,6661722




    3,6661722












    • The trouble with a term like "hard border" is it means different things to different people. Does a border with no permanent barriers but number plate scanners and targetted customs inspections count as a "hard border"?
      – Peter Green
      1 hour ago










    • @PeterGreen: The term is essentially undefined. Some Irish politicians say "harder border" rather than "hard border". So far as I can tell, the border arrangements are not defined or even mentioned in the 1998 British-Irish Agreement (also known as The Belfast Agreement / The Good Friday Agreement)
      – RedGrittyBrick
      44 mins ago




















    • The trouble with a term like "hard border" is it means different things to different people. Does a border with no permanent barriers but number plate scanners and targetted customs inspections count as a "hard border"?
      – Peter Green
      1 hour ago










    • @PeterGreen: The term is essentially undefined. Some Irish politicians say "harder border" rather than "hard border". So far as I can tell, the border arrangements are not defined or even mentioned in the 1998 British-Irish Agreement (also known as The Belfast Agreement / The Good Friday Agreement)
      – RedGrittyBrick
      44 mins ago


















    The trouble with a term like "hard border" is it means different things to different people. Does a border with no permanent barriers but number plate scanners and targetted customs inspections count as a "hard border"?
    – Peter Green
    1 hour ago




    The trouble with a term like "hard border" is it means different things to different people. Does a border with no permanent barriers but number plate scanners and targetted customs inspections count as a "hard border"?
    – Peter Green
    1 hour ago












    @PeterGreen: The term is essentially undefined. Some Irish politicians say "harder border" rather than "hard border". So far as I can tell, the border arrangements are not defined or even mentioned in the 1998 British-Irish Agreement (also known as The Belfast Agreement / The Good Friday Agreement)
    – RedGrittyBrick
    44 mins ago






    @PeterGreen: The term is essentially undefined. Some Irish politicians say "harder border" rather than "hard border". So far as I can tell, the border arrangements are not defined or even mentioned in the 1998 British-Irish Agreement (also known as The Belfast Agreement / The Good Friday Agreement)
    – RedGrittyBrick
    44 mins ago












    up vote
    4
    down vote













    The UK's unwritten constitution has the provision that current parliament cannot tie the hands of future ones in most cases. Therefore any promises made by the current government regarding the Irish border can only be enforced by international treaty, not merely by UK law (which can be repealed/amended unilaterally by future governments).






    share|improve this answer



















    • 3




      Parliaments, not governments. It’s Parliament that is sovereign, not the government.
      – Mike Scott
      yesterday










    • Side note: The provision is written down in The Law of the Constitution (1885), pp 39-40.
      – RedGrittyBrick
      1 hour ago















    up vote
    4
    down vote













    The UK's unwritten constitution has the provision that current parliament cannot tie the hands of future ones in most cases. Therefore any promises made by the current government regarding the Irish border can only be enforced by international treaty, not merely by UK law (which can be repealed/amended unilaterally by future governments).






    share|improve this answer



















    • 3




      Parliaments, not governments. It’s Parliament that is sovereign, not the government.
      – Mike Scott
      yesterday










    • Side note: The provision is written down in The Law of the Constitution (1885), pp 39-40.
      – RedGrittyBrick
      1 hour ago













    up vote
    4
    down vote










    up vote
    4
    down vote









    The UK's unwritten constitution has the provision that current parliament cannot tie the hands of future ones in most cases. Therefore any promises made by the current government regarding the Irish border can only be enforced by international treaty, not merely by UK law (which can be repealed/amended unilaterally by future governments).






    share|improve this answer














    The UK's unwritten constitution has the provision that current parliament cannot tie the hands of future ones in most cases. Therefore any promises made by the current government regarding the Irish border can only be enforced by international treaty, not merely by UK law (which can be repealed/amended unilaterally by future governments).







    share|improve this answer














    share|improve this answer



    share|improve this answer








    edited yesterday

























    answered yesterday









    user

    5,33121126




    5,33121126








    • 3




      Parliaments, not governments. It’s Parliament that is sovereign, not the government.
      – Mike Scott
      yesterday










    • Side note: The provision is written down in The Law of the Constitution (1885), pp 39-40.
      – RedGrittyBrick
      1 hour ago














    • 3




      Parliaments, not governments. It’s Parliament that is sovereign, not the government.
      – Mike Scott
      yesterday










    • Side note: The provision is written down in The Law of the Constitution (1885), pp 39-40.
      – RedGrittyBrick
      1 hour ago








    3




    3




    Parliaments, not governments. It’s Parliament that is sovereign, not the government.
    – Mike Scott
    yesterday




    Parliaments, not governments. It’s Parliament that is sovereign, not the government.
    – Mike Scott
    yesterday












    Side note: The provision is written down in The Law of the Constitution (1885), pp 39-40.
    – RedGrittyBrick
    1 hour ago




    Side note: The provision is written down in The Law of the Constitution (1885), pp 39-40.
    – RedGrittyBrick
    1 hour ago










    up vote
    4
    down vote













    All parties want to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but the problem is that the UK also wants to be free to trade with anyone they want, even if that trade violates EU rules.



    If the EU agreed to allow the UK to do this, and also allowed for there to be no hard border in Ireland, it would end up compromising the EU borders. The UK would be free to import goods from anywhere in the world, and then export those goods to the EU. The UK would essentially become a backdoor into the EU. It's pretty obvious that they cannot allow this situation to happen.



    The UK want to have their cake and eat it. They want to both be part of the EU (no hard border in Ireland), and not part of the EU (free to make their own trade rules). These two aims are in direct opposition.






    share|improve this answer








    New contributor




    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.














    • 1




      +1, but I would add that there are potential solutions, e.g., the proposal to place a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Or Northern Ireland could become an independent nation, or even part of the Republic. It's just that the UK don't like those ideas either, and to be fair, they would probably result in just about as much trouble as breaking the Good Friday Agreement would.
      – Harry Johnston
      19 hours ago















    up vote
    4
    down vote













    All parties want to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but the problem is that the UK also wants to be free to trade with anyone they want, even if that trade violates EU rules.



    If the EU agreed to allow the UK to do this, and also allowed for there to be no hard border in Ireland, it would end up compromising the EU borders. The UK would be free to import goods from anywhere in the world, and then export those goods to the EU. The UK would essentially become a backdoor into the EU. It's pretty obvious that they cannot allow this situation to happen.



    The UK want to have their cake and eat it. They want to both be part of the EU (no hard border in Ireland), and not part of the EU (free to make their own trade rules). These two aims are in direct opposition.






    share|improve this answer








    New contributor




    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.














    • 1




      +1, but I would add that there are potential solutions, e.g., the proposal to place a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Or Northern Ireland could become an independent nation, or even part of the Republic. It's just that the UK don't like those ideas either, and to be fair, they would probably result in just about as much trouble as breaking the Good Friday Agreement would.
      – Harry Johnston
      19 hours ago













    up vote
    4
    down vote










    up vote
    4
    down vote









    All parties want to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but the problem is that the UK also wants to be free to trade with anyone they want, even if that trade violates EU rules.



    If the EU agreed to allow the UK to do this, and also allowed for there to be no hard border in Ireland, it would end up compromising the EU borders. The UK would be free to import goods from anywhere in the world, and then export those goods to the EU. The UK would essentially become a backdoor into the EU. It's pretty obvious that they cannot allow this situation to happen.



    The UK want to have their cake and eat it. They want to both be part of the EU (no hard border in Ireland), and not part of the EU (free to make their own trade rules). These two aims are in direct opposition.






    share|improve this answer








    New contributor




    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.









    All parties want to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but the problem is that the UK also wants to be free to trade with anyone they want, even if that trade violates EU rules.



    If the EU agreed to allow the UK to do this, and also allowed for there to be no hard border in Ireland, it would end up compromising the EU borders. The UK would be free to import goods from anywhere in the world, and then export those goods to the EU. The UK would essentially become a backdoor into the EU. It's pretty obvious that they cannot allow this situation to happen.



    The UK want to have their cake and eat it. They want to both be part of the EU (no hard border in Ireland), and not part of the EU (free to make their own trade rules). These two aims are in direct opposition.







    share|improve this answer








    New contributor




    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.









    share|improve this answer



    share|improve this answer






    New contributor




    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.









    answered yesterday









    Doctor Jones

    1412




    1412




    New contributor




    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.





    New contributor





    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.






    Doctor Jones is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.








    • 1




      +1, but I would add that there are potential solutions, e.g., the proposal to place a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Or Northern Ireland could become an independent nation, or even part of the Republic. It's just that the UK don't like those ideas either, and to be fair, they would probably result in just about as much trouble as breaking the Good Friday Agreement would.
      – Harry Johnston
      19 hours ago














    • 1




      +1, but I would add that there are potential solutions, e.g., the proposal to place a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Or Northern Ireland could become an independent nation, or even part of the Republic. It's just that the UK don't like those ideas either, and to be fair, they would probably result in just about as much trouble as breaking the Good Friday Agreement would.
      – Harry Johnston
      19 hours ago








    1




    1




    +1, but I would add that there are potential solutions, e.g., the proposal to place a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Or Northern Ireland could become an independent nation, or even part of the Republic. It's just that the UK don't like those ideas either, and to be fair, they would probably result in just about as much trouble as breaking the Good Friday Agreement would.
    – Harry Johnston
    19 hours ago




    +1, but I would add that there are potential solutions, e.g., the proposal to place a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Or Northern Ireland could become an independent nation, or even part of the Republic. It's just that the UK don't like those ideas either, and to be fair, they would probably result in just about as much trouble as breaking the Good Friday Agreement would.
    – Harry Johnston
    19 hours ago










    up vote
    3
    down vote













    Many important points have already been made but one thing missing is that the backstop is emphatically not a transitional agreement. It's a fallback position if at some point in the future the arrangements between the UK and the EU fail to guarantee a border without physical infrastructure. It would not come into force in March 2019 when UK-Irish trade is still covered by the so-called “transition period” rules. In fact, it's not supposed to ever come into force, if you believe the claims that it should be possible to agree to some trade agreement that would deal with the border issue before the end of the transition period.






    share|improve this answer



























      up vote
      3
      down vote













      Many important points have already been made but one thing missing is that the backstop is emphatically not a transitional agreement. It's a fallback position if at some point in the future the arrangements between the UK and the EU fail to guarantee a border without physical infrastructure. It would not come into force in March 2019 when UK-Irish trade is still covered by the so-called “transition period” rules. In fact, it's not supposed to ever come into force, if you believe the claims that it should be possible to agree to some trade agreement that would deal with the border issue before the end of the transition period.






      share|improve this answer

























        up vote
        3
        down vote










        up vote
        3
        down vote









        Many important points have already been made but one thing missing is that the backstop is emphatically not a transitional agreement. It's a fallback position if at some point in the future the arrangements between the UK and the EU fail to guarantee a border without physical infrastructure. It would not come into force in March 2019 when UK-Irish trade is still covered by the so-called “transition period” rules. In fact, it's not supposed to ever come into force, if you believe the claims that it should be possible to agree to some trade agreement that would deal with the border issue before the end of the transition period.






        share|improve this answer














        Many important points have already been made but one thing missing is that the backstop is emphatically not a transitional agreement. It's a fallback position if at some point in the future the arrangements between the UK and the EU fail to guarantee a border without physical infrastructure. It would not come into force in March 2019 when UK-Irish trade is still covered by the so-called “transition period” rules. In fact, it's not supposed to ever come into force, if you believe the claims that it should be possible to agree to some trade agreement that would deal with the border issue before the end of the transition period.







        share|improve this answer














        share|improve this answer



        share|improve this answer








        edited yesterday

























        answered yesterday









        Relaxed

        16.1k3455




        16.1k3455






















            up vote
            2
            down vote













            The EU is simply insisting that the UK stick to other commitments that it has made to EU members, in this case the Good Friday Agreement with Ireland. That agreement can only be modified with the consent of the voters of both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the former of whom didn’t vote on Brexit and the latter of whom voted against it. If the Brexiters want a looser relationship with the EU while keeping the UK intact, then democracy requires that they convince those voters, not just the voters of England and Wales. Since they haven’t done so, then the UK must stay aligned with the EU in many ways to enable the border to stay open.






            share|improve this answer





















            • I'm not sure it would make any difference if Northern Ireland had voted for Brexit; the Irish republicans would presumably still demand that the GFA be enforced.
              – Harry Johnston
              19 hours ago















            up vote
            2
            down vote













            The EU is simply insisting that the UK stick to other commitments that it has made to EU members, in this case the Good Friday Agreement with Ireland. That agreement can only be modified with the consent of the voters of both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the former of whom didn’t vote on Brexit and the latter of whom voted against it. If the Brexiters want a looser relationship with the EU while keeping the UK intact, then democracy requires that they convince those voters, not just the voters of England and Wales. Since they haven’t done so, then the UK must stay aligned with the EU in many ways to enable the border to stay open.






            share|improve this answer





















            • I'm not sure it would make any difference if Northern Ireland had voted for Brexit; the Irish republicans would presumably still demand that the GFA be enforced.
              – Harry Johnston
              19 hours ago













            up vote
            2
            down vote










            up vote
            2
            down vote









            The EU is simply insisting that the UK stick to other commitments that it has made to EU members, in this case the Good Friday Agreement with Ireland. That agreement can only be modified with the consent of the voters of both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the former of whom didn’t vote on Brexit and the latter of whom voted against it. If the Brexiters want a looser relationship with the EU while keeping the UK intact, then democracy requires that they convince those voters, not just the voters of England and Wales. Since they haven’t done so, then the UK must stay aligned with the EU in many ways to enable the border to stay open.






            share|improve this answer












            The EU is simply insisting that the UK stick to other commitments that it has made to EU members, in this case the Good Friday Agreement with Ireland. That agreement can only be modified with the consent of the voters of both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the former of whom didn’t vote on Brexit and the latter of whom voted against it. If the Brexiters want a looser relationship with the EU while keeping the UK intact, then democracy requires that they convince those voters, not just the voters of England and Wales. Since they haven’t done so, then the UK must stay aligned with the EU in many ways to enable the border to stay open.







            share|improve this answer












            share|improve this answer



            share|improve this answer










            answered yesterday









            Mike Scott

            82637




            82637












            • I'm not sure it would make any difference if Northern Ireland had voted for Brexit; the Irish republicans would presumably still demand that the GFA be enforced.
              – Harry Johnston
              19 hours ago


















            • I'm not sure it would make any difference if Northern Ireland had voted for Brexit; the Irish republicans would presumably still demand that the GFA be enforced.
              – Harry Johnston
              19 hours ago
















            I'm not sure it would make any difference if Northern Ireland had voted for Brexit; the Irish republicans would presumably still demand that the GFA be enforced.
            – Harry Johnston
            19 hours ago




            I'm not sure it would make any difference if Northern Ireland had voted for Brexit; the Irish republicans would presumably still demand that the GFA be enforced.
            – Harry Johnston
            19 hours ago










            Jimmy Breck-McKye is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.










             

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